Western Countries See Palestinian State08/01 06:26

   Plans announced by France, the United Kingdom and Canada to recognize a 
Palestinian state won't bring one about anytime soon, though they could further 
isolate Israel and strengthen the Palestinians' negotiating position over the 
long term.

   OTTAWA, Ontario (AP) -- Plans announced by France, the United Kingdom and 
Canada to recognize a Palestinian state won't bring one about anytime soon, 
though they could further isolate Israel and strengthen the Palestinians' 
negotiating position over the long term.

   The problem for the Palestinians is that there may not be a long term.

   Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects Palestinian statehood and 
has vowed to maintain open-ended control over annexed east Jerusalem, the 
occupied West Bank and the war-ravaged Gaza Strip -- territories Israel seized 
in the 1967 war that the Palestinians want for their state.

   Israeli leaders favor the outright annexation of much of the West Bank, 
where Israel has already built well over 100 settlements housing over 500,000 
Jewish settlers. Israel's offensive in Gaza has reduced most of it to a 
smoldering wasteland and is pushing it toward famine, and Israel says it is 
pressing ahead with plans to relocate much of its population of some 2 million 
to other countries.

   The United States, the only country with any real leverage over Israel, has 
taken its side.

   Critics say these countries could do much more

   Palestinians have welcomed international support for their decades-long 
quest for statehood but say there are more urgent measures Western countries 
could take if they wanted to pressure Israel.

   "It's a bit odd that the response to daily atrocities in Gaza, including 
what is by all accounts deliberate starvation, is to recognize a theoretical 
Palestinian state that may never actually come into being," said Khaled 
Elgindy, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary 
Arab Studies.

   "It looks more like a way for these countries to appear to be doing 
something," he said.

   Fathi Nimer, a policy fellow at Al-Shabaka, a Palestinian think tank, says 
they could have suspended trade agreements with Israel, imposed arms embargoes 
or other sanctions. "There is a wide tool set at the disposal of these 
countries, but there is no political will to use it," he said.

   It's not a completely empty gesture

   Most countries in the world recognized Palestinian statehood decades ago, 
but Britain and France would be the third and fourth permanent members of the 
U.N. Security Council to do so, leaving the U.S. as the only holdout.

   "We're talking about major countries and major Israeli allies," said Alon 
Pinkas, an Israeli political analyst and former consul general in New York. 
"They're isolating the U.S. and they're leaving Israel dependent -- not on the 
U.S., but on the whims and erratic behavior of one person, Trump."

   Recognition could also strengthen moves to prevent annexation, said Hugh 
Lovatt, an expert on the conflict at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 
The challenge, he said, "is for those recognizing countries to match their 
recognition with other steps, practical steps."

   It could also prove significant if Israel and the Palestinians ever resume 
the long-dormant peace process, which ground to a halt after Prime Minister 
Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office in 2009.

   "If and when some kind of negotiations do resume, probably not in the 
immediate future, but at some point, it puts Palestine on much more equal 
footing," said Julie Norman, a professor of Middle East politics at University 
College London.

   "It has statehood as a starting point for those negotiations, rather than a 
certainly-not-assured endpoint."

   Israel calls it a reward for violence

   Israel's government and most of its political class were opposed to 
Palestinian statehood long before Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack triggered the war.

   Netanyahu says creating a Palestinian state would reward Hamas and 
eventually lead to an even larger Hamas-run state on Israel's borders. Hamas 
leaders have at times suggested they would accept a state on the 1967 borders 
but the group remains formally committed to Israel's destruction.

   Western countries envision a future Palestinian state that would be 
democratic but also led by political rivals of Hamas who accept Israel and help 
it suppress the militant group, which won parliamentary elections in 2006 and 
seized power in Gaza the following year.

   Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whose authority administers parts of 
the occupied West Bank, supports a two-state solution and cooperates with 
Israel on security matters. He has made a series of concessions in recent 
months, including announcing the end to the Palestinian Authority's practice of 
providing stipends to the families of prisoners held by Israel and slain 
militants.

   Such measures, along with the security coordination, have made it deeply 
unpopular with Palestinians, and have yet to earn it any favors from Israel or 
the Trump administration. Israel says Abbas is not sincerely committed to peace 
and accuses him of tolerating incitement and militancy.

   Lovatt says there is much to criticize about the PA, but that "often the 
failings of the Palestinian leadership are exaggerated in a way to relieve 
Israel of its own obligations."

   The tide may be turning, but not fast enough

   If you had told Palestinians in September 2023 that major countries were on 
the verge of recognizing a state, that the U.N.'s highest court had ordered 
Israel to end the occupation, that the International Criminal Court had ordered 
Netanyahu's arrest, and that prominent voices from across the U.S. political 
spectrum were furious with Israel, they might have thought their dream of 
statehood was at hand.

   But those developments pale in comparison to the ongoing war in Gaza and 
smaller but similarly destructive military offensives in the West Bank. 
Israel's military victories over Iran and its allies have left it the dominant 
and nearly unchallenged military power in the region, and Trump is the 
strongest supporter it has ever had in the White House.

   "This (Israeli) government is not going to change policy," Pinkas said. "The 
recognition issue, the ending of the war, humanitarian aid -- that's all going 
to have to wait for another government."