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Keeping Score on Trump's Tariffs
By Chris Clayton
Friday, August 1, 2025 8:45AM CDT

OMAHA (DTN) -- President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a series of tariff moves against U.S. trading partners as he continues to pressure trading partners to bend to his will.

As the president presses his case, U.S. agricultural export sales right now remain down from a year ago while commodity groups continue to look for the light at the end of the tunnel.

Trump raised tariffs on Canadian products from 25% to 35%. Trump accused Canada of not doing enough to reduce drug trafficking while he also claimed Canada had been working to upend his tariff plans. On social media, Trump also suggested Canada's efforts to recognize Palestine would further complicate any trade deals.

U.S. agriculture exported $29.5 billion in products to Canada in 2024, though the pace has slowed slightly, down 3% through May, according to USDA data. Imports of Canadian agricultural products were nearly $41 billion last year, but they have dropped 4%.

Trump issued executive orders late Thursday detailing a range of new tariffs on countries. The tariffs on Canada went into effect immediately while others go into effect next week.

While tariffs were raised on Canada, Trump gave Mexico another 90-day extension this week after speaking with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

Products that fall under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) will remain at their current tariff levels.

Mexico remains the top market for U.S. agricultural products with nearly $12.3 billion in sales through May, down 2% from a year ago. Mexico imported $30.2 billion in U.S. agricultural goods in 2024.

So far, no deal has been reached with China either. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated earlier this week it would likely take another 90 days of talks to reach a deal with China. This is where the soybean market is being affected because so far, China has not made any commitments to buy U.S. soybeans for the new marketing year, which begins Sept. 1. China bought 47% of U.S. soybean exports for the current marketing year. Chinese buyers have declined to lock in new buys even as September soybeans have fallen 98 cents a bushel since late June. Prices have fallen with expectations of both a big crop and a drop in export demand.

Also, through May, pork exports to China are down 18% compared to 2024 and beef exports to China and Hong Kong are down a combined 29%, according to reports from the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

Overall, U.S. agricultural exports to China are down 55% through May, USDA reports -- the biggest hit for top export markets. In 2024, China was the third-largest market for U.S. agricultural goods at $24.4 billion, but sales through May had not reached $5 billion.

Trump also declared a national emergency against Brazil over the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Trump ordered a 50% tariff on most products from Brazil starting Aug. 6, including Brazilian beef, which accounts for nearly $1.2 billion in imported products in just the first five months of this year, according to USDA. Beef imports from Brazil were up 106% compared to a year ago.

The U.S. also imports roughly $2 billion in coffee products annually from Brazil, which would be subject to a 50% tariff. Brazilian coffee makes up roughly 40% of all coffee Americans drink daily. Coffee imports through May were valued at $1.4 billion, up 80% from the same period last year, USDA reports.

The president's orders also put a 40% tariff on any product determined as likely coming from another country to avoid higher tariffs. That move likely is targeting products from China that may have moved through Vietnam another neighboring country.

In a release from the White House, Trump also touted his deals:

-- The European Union has agreed to purchase $750 billion in energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the U.S. by 2028 while accepting a baseline 15% tariff rate.

-- Japan agreed to invest $550 billion in the United States and open its market to more U.S. products while accepting a 15% tariff rate.

-- Additional deals have been reached with the United Kingdom, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam.

"President Trump is using tariffs as a necessary and powerful tool to put America First after many years of unsustainable trade deficits that threaten our economy and national security."

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @ChrisClaytonDTN


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